I Got Curious

"shpuker" (shpuker) 04/12/2016 at 20:05 • Filed to: None

1

15

So I plugged in some of the numbers from the Democratic Primary so far in order to see how it’s all really playing out.

As of now the reported delegate count (excluding super-delegates) is 1,289 for Hillary and 1,038 for Sanders. Knowing that delegates within a state aren’t given out based on the overall voting % in a state but rather on the % within certain districts (look at the Washington results for a good example of a truly strange system), I figured I’d see what the count would look like if each sate awarded delegates strictly based on the overall percentage (and then split up the super-delegates in the same way). Here’s what I found.

If you add the delegates up this way there are a couple states with small changes (ex. Texas changes by 3, Bama and Nevada by 2, etc.) and then there’s Washington. If it was strictly split up on percentage then right now Washington’s 101 delegates would be split 73:27 (float the rounding delegate to your liking) as opposed to 25:9 as it sits now. I’m not gonna go into detail about it right now but essentially only the first 34 delegates are bound by what the states voting decides and the other 67 can theoretically do what they want, but typically stick to the voting split.

Regardless though, if all delegates in the states were split proportionally what would it look like?

Hillary Clinton: 1,277 (198)

Bernie Sanders: 1,068 (185)

So if you put it all together she maintains a 223 total delegate lead (209 regular delegates) as opposed to the current 689 delegate lead (251 regular). With nearly 2,000 delegates still on the table a gap of 223 certainly would make this a much more interesting race. Even as we sit though, a 251 delegate actual difference is the real thing to keep an eye on. If New York flips on voting day or any other series of events transpire then this is going to turn into a crazy race to the finish.

Hot Takes Salesman > shpuker 04/12/2016 at 20:09

0

I need Hillary to get Tyrannosaurus fucking Rekt.

djmt1 > shpuker 04/12/2016 at 20:10

5

2 years ago I made a post celebrating the end of the UK elections to which someone replied about how you guys have at least 3 more years to go. I thought they were joking...

They weren’t joking.

Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis > shpuker 04/12/2016 at 20:13

2

It would be the largest comeback in primary history for the dems.

As of a few weeks ago this was Bernies path to the nomination. And he’s fallen short in nearly every state so far.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-r…

Supreme Chancellor and Glorious Leader SaveTheIntegras > shpuker 04/12/2016 at 20:14

5

Your picture needs to be this video

Thank me later

My citroen won't start > shpuker 04/12/2016 at 20:14

7

shpuker > Supreme Chancellor and Glorious Leader SaveTheIntegras 04/12/2016 at 20:15

2

You’re 110% correct

Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis > My citroen won't start 04/12/2016 at 20:17

3

Sure he is...

415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) > My citroen won't start 04/12/2016 at 20:19

6

.

TheHondaBro > 415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) 04/12/2016 at 20:20

4

d15b > shpuker 04/12/2016 at 20:23

0

It’s definitely a race. California will actually play a role!

Supreme Chancellor and Glorious Leader SaveTheIntegras > TheHondaBro 04/12/2016 at 20:34

1

That Bastard Kurtis - An Attempt to Standardize My Username Across Platforms > shpuker 04/12/2016 at 20:40

2

I don't think Bernie is getting any of the super delegates, as much as he talks about them flipping...he hasn't done much work for the party itself as far as stumping for their candidates further down the ticket. It's a weird system the Dems have, it's kinda like they're saying people can vote for whoever they want but they reserve the right to swing the vote to whomever they prefer.

LongbowMkII > That Bastard Kurtis - An Attempt to Standardize My Username Across Platforms 04/12/2016 at 20:49

0

Support for down ballot candidates is overblown. Even if money did go down it’d only go to candidates that Hillary supports as the Clintons installed the DNC leadership.

Deal Killer - Powered by Focus > That Bastard Kurtis - An Attempt to Standardize My Username Across Platforms 04/12/2016 at 21:26

0

Super delegates are basically what keeps democrats from electing their version of Donald Trump. They’re something the Republican Party is probably wishing they had right about now.

shpuker > That Bastard Kurtis - An Attempt to Standardize My Username Across Platforms 04/12/2016 at 21:35

2

Saying that Sanders hasn’t done much for the Democratic party is pretty blasphemous. If there’s any single thing he’s done better than anyone during his time it’s been fighting for what the Dems claim to stand for.